Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (S)

Dynamical, thermodynamical and cloud-microphysical studies of violent wind and heavy rain-producing tropical cyclones: Quantitative improvement of intensity estimations/forecasts


(Tropical cyclones-Pacific Asian Research Campaign for Improvement of Intensity estimations/forecasts)

Principal Investigator: Kazuhisa Tsuboki
Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research (ISEE), Nagoya University

Synopsis of the research project

yPurpose and Background of the Researchz

Typhoons are the most devastating weather system. Violent wind and heavy rainfall associated with a typhoon cause huge disaster in East Asia including Japan. In 2013, Supertyphoon Haiyan struck the Philippines caused a very high storm surge and more than 7000 people were killed. In 2015, two typhoons approached the main islands of Japan and severe flood occurred in the northern Kanto region. Moreover, many researches have projected increase of typhoon intensity with the climate change. However, the historical data of typhoon include large uncertainty. In particular, intensity data of the most intense typhoons have larger error after the US aircraft reconnaissance of typhoon was terminated in 1987.

Addressing the problem of the typhoon intensity is the main objective of the present study. We perform aircraft observation of typhoon to improve intensity estimation, and also in-situ observation of thermodynamical and cloud-microphysical processes of typhoons to improve numerical model. According to the observational results, intensity estimations and forecasts will be improved.

yExpected Research Achievements and Scientific Significancez

This research will advance aircraft observation technique of typhoon in Japan. The aircraft observation will be the breakthrough to improve typhoon intensity estimations. Assimilation of the aircraft observation data to the cloud-resolving model will improve intensity estimations and forecasts of typhoons. This is the first step for the future advanced aircraft observation and will contribute to prevention or reduction of typhoon disasters.

yPublications Relevant to the Projectz

Tsuboki, K., M. K. Yoshioka, T. Shinoda, M. Kato, S. Kanada, and A. Kitoh (2015), Future increase of supertyphoon intensity associated with climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 646-652, doi:10.1002/2014GL061793.

yTerm of Projectz