[Japanese]
修士論文要旨(松井 龍)
新たに開発した航空機観測データ解析手法によって示された台風上部暖気核の非軸対称構造
松井 龍
熱帯低気圧 (TC) の中心部に形成される暖気核や循環構造の理解は, 強度変化予測において極めて重要である. 近年の台風航空機観測では, ドロップゾンデの多点投下により鉛直構造の把握が進展した. しかし, ゾンデ観測は水平方向には離散的であり, 単一事例における暖気核の微細な水平勾配や風場の連続的な非対称構造を記述するには限界がある. これに対し, 航空機が運航目的で記録するフライトデータは, フライトパスに沿った高時間分解能の連続観測としてこの欠落を補完し得る. ただし, 台風環境下では機体の姿勢変化や着氷等に伴う誤差が混入し得るため, 品質管理 (Quality Control (QC)) が不可欠となる.本研究は, T-PARCII により観測された 2022 年台風第 14 号 (Nanmadol) を対象に, フライトデータに対する体系的な QC 手法を構築し同一飛行のドロップゾンデを併用することで, 高度約 14.5 km (145–150 hPa) における上部暖気核と風場の水平構造を観測に基づいて記述した.
解析対象は 9 月 16 日 (発達期) および 9 月 17 日 (成熟期) である. まず, 台風中心位置の不確定性を低減するため, ひまわり 8 号赤外画像の輝度温度重心から中心位置を推定し, 中心相対座標系を確立した. その上でフライトデータのQC を行った. 気温については, 全温度と対気速度の物理的整合性に基づき, 17日に発生した整合性低下区間を異常として検出・除外した. 風については, 機体のロール・ヘディング変化率に基づき操縦影響区間を特定するとともに, 短周期変動成分に基づくリスク評価を行い擬似変動の影響を抑制した.
解析の結果, 16 日は比較的軸対称な気温構造を示したのに対し 17 日は中心の高温化が顕著であるとともに, 北〜北西象限に明瞭な高温偏差を持つ非対称構造が明らかとなった. 風場においては, 最大接線風速は 28.0 m/s から 39.6 m/sへと増大し, 最大接線風半径 (RMW) は 44 km から 24 km へと縮小したことで, 成熟期における内部コアの強化と収縮が示された. さらに 17 日の上部風場では象限による動径風場の違いが顕著に表れ, 台風中心から東側ではインフロー, 西側ではアウトフローであった.
GSM 客観解析に基づく環境鉛直シアは, 16 日から 17 日にかけて南南東向きに増大していた. したがって, 17 日に北〜北西象限で卓越した上部の高温偏差は,鉛直シアにより渦が傾斜した際に upshear 側へ現れ得る暖気偏差として解釈でき,傾斜渦の力学応答と整合的である. さらに, ひまわり 8 号の雲頂高度を確認すると, シアベクトルに対して左側 (shear-left) で雲頂が高く, 右側 (shear-right) で約1 km 低く, 鉛直シア下で対流が象限的に非対称化したことが示唆される.
一方, 上部対流圏ではアウトフロー層の上下にインフロー層が現れ得ることが報告されている. したがって固定高度を飛行した航空機観測では, 象限ごとの対流深さの違いに伴うアウトフロー高度帯の相対的な上下の差により, shear-left 側でインフローが観測され, shear-right ではアウトフローが卓越した.
本研究は, 適切な QC を施したフライトデータが, ドロップゾンデのサンプリングでは捉えきれない象限間コントラストや中心近傍の急峻な勾配を記述する上で有効であり, 上部の構造を記述できることを示した. 本成果は, 台風航空機観測でのフライトデータ基盤を広げるとともに, 台風の上部構造変化の理解に寄与するものである.
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[English]
Non-axisymmetric Upper Warm-Core Structure of a Typhoon Revealed by a Newly Developed Analysis Procedure for In Situ Aircraft Observations
Ryu Matsui
Understanding the warm core and circulation structure in the inner-core region of a tropical cyclone (TC) is crucial for predicting intensity changes. Recent aircraft observations of typhoons have advanced our knowledge of vertical structure through multi-point dropsonde deployments. However, because dropsonde observations are horizontally discrete, they are limited in their ability to resolve fine horizontal gradients of the warm core and the continuous azimuthal asymmetry of the wind field in a single case. In contrast, flight-level in situ measurements recorded onboard research aircraft can complement this limitation by providing continuous, high-temporal-resolution observations along the flight path. Under typhoon conditions, however, such measurements can be contaminated by errors associated with aircraft attitude changes, maneuvering, and airframe icing, making rigorous quality control (QC) indispensable.
In this study, focusing on Typhoon Nanmadol (2022; Typhoon No. 14) observed during the T-PARCII campaign, we developed a systematic QC framework for flight-level data and, together with dropsondes released during the same flight, used these observations to describe the horizontal structure of the upper-level warm core and wind field at an altitude of approximately 14.5 km (145–150 hPa).
The analysis targeted 16 September (developing stage) and 17 September (mature stage). To reduce uncertainty in the storm-center position, we first estimated the center using the brightness-temperature centroid derived from Himawari-8 infrared imagery and established a storm-relative coordinate system. We then applied QC to the flight-level data. For temperature, physical consistency between total air temperature and true airspeed was examined, and a time interval on 17 September exhibiting degraded consistency was identified as anomalous and excluded. For wind, segments affected by aircraft maneuvering were identified using roll and heading rate diagnostics, and a risk assessment based on high-frequency variability was applied to suppress spurious fluctuations.
The results indicate that the temperature structure on 16 September was relatively axisymmetric, whereas on 17 September pronounced warming near the storm center was observed together with a distinct asymmetric structure characterized by a positive temperature anomaly in the north–northwest (N–NW) quadrant. In the wind field, the maximum tangential wind speed increased from 28.0 m s⁻¹ to 39.6 m s⁻¹, while the radius of maximum tangential wind (RMW) contracted from 44 km to 24 km, indicating intensification and contraction of the inner core during the mature stage.
Environmental analysis based on GSM objective analysis data showed that the environmental vertical wind shear strengthened from 16 to 17 September and was directed toward the south-southeast. Accordingly, the warm anomaly observed in the N–NW quadrant on 17 September can be interpreted as an upshear warm anomaly that arises when a vortex tilts under vertical wind shear, consistent with the expected dynamical response of a sheared vortex. Consistent with this interpretation, Himawari-8 cloud-top height estimates reveal deeper convection on the shear-left side and cloud tops approximately 1 km lower on the shear-right side, indicating pronounced azimuthal asymmetry in convective structure under vertical shear.
In addition, previous studies have reported that inflow layers can appear above and below the primary outflow layer in the upper troposphere. Therefore, for aircraft observations conducted at a fixed flight altitude, quadrant-dependent differences in convective depth can lead to relative vertical displacements of the outflow layer. As a result, inflow was observed on the shear-left side, while outflow dominated on the shear-right side at the flight level. This interpretation explains the observed quadrant-dependent radial flow pattern on 17 September, with inflow to the east of the storm center and outflow to the west.
This study demonstrates that flight-level data subjected to appropriate and systematic quality control are highly effective for resolving inter-quadrant contrasts and steep horizontal gradients near the storm center that cannot be fully captured by dropsonde sampling alone. The results expand the observational utility of flight-level data in typhoon aircraft campaigns and contribute to a deeper understanding of structural changes in the upper troposphere associated with tropical cyclone intensification and vertical wind shear.
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