[Japanese]
修士論文要旨(佐藤 知宏)

エルニーニョ/ラニーニャ現象およびインド洋ダイポールモード現象発生時における台風の強度特性

佐藤 知宏


台⾵は, ⽇本を含む東南アジアに⼤きな被害をもたらすため, 台⾵の発⽣域である⻄太平洋熱帯域の対流活動に変化を与える⼤気海洋現象との関係性を明らかにすることは重要である. エルニーニョ/ラニーニャ現象やインド洋ダイポールモード (IOD) 現象は, 台⾵の発⽣位置や発⽣数, 経路, 寿命などに影響を及ぼすことが指摘されている. しかしながら, 両現象 (の同時) 発⽣時における台⾵の強度に関する研究は少ない. そこで本研究では, エルニーニョ/ラニーニャ現象や IOD 現象に伴い, 台⾵通過域の環境場がどのように変化し, それにより台⾵の強度がどのような影響を受けるのか明らかにすることを⽬的とする.

エルニーニョ (ラニーニャ) 現象発⽣時における北⻄太平洋は, 平年より発達しにくい (しやすい) 環境となっており, 強い台⾵はそのような環境を⻑ (短)期間通過し発達した傾向が⾒られた. またエルニーニョ現象発⽣時に南東側で発⽣した台⾵は, 海⾯⽔温がより⾼いなど発達に好都合な領域を通過することにより, 短期間で発達したものもあった. そしてエルニーニョ現象発⽣時は, 強い台⾵の割合が多くなっていた.

正 (負) の IOD 現象発⽣時における北⻄太平洋は, 南東部で平年より発達しやすく南⻄部で発達しにくい環境 (平年より発達しやすい環境) となっていた.そのため正の IOD 現象発⽣時の強い台⾵は, 発達に時間がかかるものとかからないものが⾒られたが, 負の IOD 現象発⽣時の強い台⾵は, ⻑い時間をかけて発達したものに限られていた. したがって負の IOD 現象発⽣時には, 台⾵の発達を遅らせる効果が作⽤したと考えられた. また正/負の IOD 現象発⽣時において, カテゴリー別に⾒た台⾵の発⽣数の割合に違いはなかった.

エルニーニョ現象と正の IOD 現象 (ラニーニャ現象と負の IOD 現象) の同時発⽣時における北⻄太平洋は, 平年より発達しにくい (しやすい) 環境となっており, 強い台⾵はそのような環境を⻑ (短) 期間通過し発達した傾向が⾒られた.⼀⽅でエルニーニョ現象と正の IOD 現象の同時発⽣時に南東側で発⽣した台⾵は, 海⾯⽔温がより⾼いなど発達に好都合な領域を通過することにより, 短期間で発達したものもあった. また負の IOD 現象発⽣時に台⾵の発達を遅らせる効果が⽣じたように, ラニーニャ現象と負の IOD 現象の同時発⽣時においてもそのような効果が⽣じたことで, ⻑い時間をかけて発達したものもあったと考えられた. そしてエルニーニョ現象と正の IOD 現象 (ラニーニャ現象と負のIOD現象) の同時発⽣時に中程度の台⾵と強い台⾵の割合が多く (少なく) なっていた.

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[English]

Characteristics of Typhoon Intensity during El Niño/La Niña and Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Events

Kazuhiro sato


Since typhoons cause severe damage in Southeast Asia including Japan, it is important to clarify the relationship between typhoons and atmospheric-oceanic phenomena that change convective activity in the tropical western Pacific, where typhoons are generated. The El Niño/La Niña and the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (IOD) events have been pointed ut to affect the location, number, path, and lifetime of typhoons. However, there are few studies on the intensity of typhoons when either the El Niño/La Niña or the IOD occurs, or both occur simultaneously. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to clarify how the environments of the areas through which the typhoon passes change with the El Niño/La Niña and the IOD, and how the typhoon intensity changes accordingly.

During the El Niño (La Niña) events, the western North Pacific is a less (more) favorable environment for typhoon development than neutral years, and strong typhoons tend to develop after passing through such an environment for a long (short) period of time. In addition, typhoons that generated in the southeast of the western North Pacific during the El Niño event tend to develop in a short period of time by passing through the more favorable environment such as higher sea surface temperatures. The ratio of strong typhoons increased.

During the positive IOD events, the western North Pacific is more favorable for the development of typhoons in the southeast and less favorable for the development of typhoons in the southwest than in neutral years. Therefore, some of the strong typhoons take longer to develop while others do not. On the other hand, during the negative IOD events, the western North Pacific is more favorable to the development of typhoons than in neutral years. Therefore, strong typhoons are limited to those that developed over a long period of time, and it is considered that the negative IOD events have a significant effect of slowing down the development of typhoons. There is no difference in the ratio of the number of typhoons by category between the positive and negative IOD events. During the simultaneous occurrence of the El Niño and positive IOD events (La Niña and negative IOD events), the western North Pacific is a less (more) favorable environment for typhoon development than neutral years, and strong typhoons tend to develop after passing through such an environment for a long (short) period of time. In addition, typhoons that generated in the southeast of the western North Pacific during the simultaneous occurrence of the El Niño and positive IOD events tend to develop in a short period of time by passing through the more favorable environment such as higher sea surface temperatures. It is also considered that some of the typhoons developed over a longer period of time due to the effect of the La Niña and negative IOD events at the same time, just as the effect of the negative IOD event is to slow down the development of typhoons. The ratio of moderate to strong typhoons was increased (decreased) during the simultaneous occurrence of El Niño and positive IOD events (La Niña and negative IOD events).

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